An escalation of trade tensions represents a growing downside risk to our baseline global forecast as the US administration looks determined to reduce the US trade deficit and curb China's strategic ambitions stated in its "Made in China 2025" plan. With the US international trade data showing a rising trade deficit in February－the widest since 2008－and a cumulative deficit vis-à-vis China on the rise－the deficit was $65.2 billion year-to-date, up almost $11 billion than the same period in 2017－we (at Oxford Economics) fear trade tensions will escalate further in the coming weeks.
Luke Tang, general manager of Mountain View-based TechCode Accelerator, echoed Applbaum's sentiments on alleviating restrictions.
The threatened US tariffs on imports from China could cumulatively represent $150 billion, about 30 percent of total US imports from China. But since these threatened tariffs will be subject to negotiation－a 60-day public comment process which includes public comments until May 11 and a public hearing on May 15－a trade war could hopefully be avoided. But if a trade war does break out, it will have a pronounced effect on bilateral as well as global trade. The US and China would suffer significant slowdown in real GDP growth－a cumulative loss of about 1.0 percentage point－and the global economy growing at 2.5 percent in 2019 versus 3.0 percent in the baseline.
BEIJING - Chinese central authorities have launched a campaign to clear up outdated regulations to safeguard the integration of military and civilian development, according to a circular provided to Xinhua Thursday.
"The constitutional revision is a major move to advance law-based governance and modernize China's system and capacity for governance," read an explanation on the revisions to be delivered to lawmakers Monday morning at the first session of the 13th National People's Congress.